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Data compiled by Career Times Research Team
A slight improvement is expected in the number of advertised job vacancies within the next six months, but structural problems and a very rapidly expanding labour force will probably still keep unemployment figures high
After a promising rise in the number of Hong Kong's advertised job vacancies in January, showing a slight improvement over the same period in 2002, followed by two steep seasonal drops at Chinese New Year and Easter, figures remained significantly lower compared to 2002, impacted by the SARS epidemic and uncertainties surrounding the war in Iraq.
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| David O'Rear, chief economist, Hong Kong General Chamber of Commerce "If the market no longer needs what you do, you should have a big revamp. Really investigate opportunities where people don't normally
look - don't turn a blind eye to new industries" |
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However, experts say that Hong Kong's labour situation is oddly contradictory. "Unemployment was at a record high of 8.3 percent in March-May but so, too, [was] the total number of jobs," says David O'Rear, chief economist, the Hong Kong General Chamber of Commerce.
Noting that, in seven of the last 12 months, the number of people employed set new historic highs, month after month, Mr O'Rear says that this "paradox" is the result of a very rapidly expanding labour force, up nearly two percent year-on-year as compared to a less than one percent rise in the population as a whole. "Hence, as the labour force rises faster than jobs, unemployment also increases."
According to Mr O'Rear, Hong Kong is in the midst of a cyclical, structural and extraordinary employment situation, reflecting the general slowing of the East Asian economies and a distortion caused by large-scale migration - including nearly 55,000 migrants per annum from mainland China. "As long as undifferentiated migration is the rule, Hong Kong will continue to face a structural employment problem," he explains.
He says that the "extraordinary situation" relates directly to the recent SARS epidemic and the ensuing loss of tourism- and retail-related jobs. "As that situation appears to be over, we can expect some slight improvement in the second half of the year."
"The post-SARS atmosphere will see a moderate return of business travellers this summer, followed by tourists later in the year," he adds. "In combination with the Closer Economic Partnership Agreement with mainland China, prospects for a continued rise in employment are good, particularly in areas related to China trade."
Victor Lai, managing consultant, Drake International, notes that most new vacancies are in front-line business generation-related positions, such as business development, sales and marketing management, in addition to continued growth in the logistics sector.
Although the hotel sector is currently hard-hit, Uris Fong, vice-president sales and marketing, Henderson-Miramar Hotel Management Co. Ltd, believes that, despite poor short-term prospects, hiring should recommence by mid 2003, boosted by the opening of two major hotels in 2004 and new 2.5- and 3-star hotels in 2006-7. "The long term prospect - four years plus - is good," he says.
According to hiring consultants, demand for executives and employees in senior positions from companies operating locally and in China remains busy. Marjorie Chang, senior manager executive resources, PricewaterhouseCoopers, notes that, although 70-80 percent of these positions are China-driven and embrace a wide range of functions, high-calibre candidates for senior finance positions are also in demand.
The IT sector is becoming increasingly competitive and healthy, says Edwin Tam, director, InfoTech Services (Hong Kong) Limited, although salaries have been reduced by 30-40 percent since 2000 across all levels of seniority. "The mid-term prospect is optimistic," he comments. According to him, competition from Shenzhen, in mainland China, is becoming less attractive, due to rising salary levels for technical support across the border.
Banking, finance and insurance have all seen staffing reductions, says Kathy Chan, manager, Advance Resources, who believes that these sectors are now targeting contract staff, in addition to reducing basic salaries in favour of higher commission. "Sales and marketing should be OK for the next few years," she says. Meanwhile, banks are relocating back-office operations into mainland China, a trend likely to be followed by insurance companies in 2004 thanks to lower staffing costs, tax incentives and other benefits.
Sentiment in the telecommunications market is still very soft compared to 2002, says Duncan Lo, managing director, Gemini Personnel, who notes that, although revenues have increased, telecommunications companies are not currently hiring new people. However, he points to positive news about 3G subscription in the UK and Italy. "Despite being on hold until 2004, this bodes well," he says. "Good news in Europe means good news for Hong Kong."
Property vacancies over the last six months have been affected by a large supply of candidates and little demand. "Job opportunities are not promising ... and poorer than last year," says Paul Ho, managing director, Manlink Personnel, pointing to the lack of new public sector activities. He notes that new construction projects exist largely in the private market.
Selective government departments still have outsourcing contracts such as payroll and tax administration. As the government has announced that it will stop recruiting new people and is trimming down civil service numbers, Mr Lai says new vacancies are few in number. Instead, part-time and ongoing temporary or short-term contracts are likely to be the norm, as opposed to two- to three-year contracts or long-term positions.
Frankie Lam, managing director, Bó L`e Associates notes, however, that US market-related business is looking healthier - particularly for manufacturers and entrepreneurs. "The US market is patchy, quarter by quarter, but even a small percentage of GDP growth creates a huge impact ... in particular on Hong Kong entrepreneurs."
Beneficiaries include Hong Kong manufacturers tapping US demand for products such as garments, although he adds that local Chinese manufacturers pose a threat.
Taken from Career Times 2003/07/04
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