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Data compiled by Career Times Research Team
As the economy gathers momentum, business confidence has returned and is generating a significant increase in job vacancies
The third quarter has seen sustained improvement in the local job market, continuing the upward trend established in the first six months of the year. Positive sentiment in the business community is clearly reflected in the Career Times research team's report for July - September 2004. This shows 6,859 vacancies recorded in the first week of the quarter, rising to an impressive 7,290 openings in the week of 12-18 September. In addition, the latest government figures indicate further good news with the overall unemployment rate provisionally down to 6.8 percent in August, the lowest level since the end of 2001.
Within the retail sector, the Hong Kong Shopping Festival gave a timely boost to many businesses. Organisers of the two-month event, which ran up to the end of August, are reporting consumer spending of at least HK$1.5 billion in stores and restaurants. Selina Chow, chairman of the Hong Kong Tourism Board says that, "The festival helped to create a citywide spending atmosphere." She confirms that local merchants were able to take full advantage of this business platform and capitalised on the two million plus visitor arrivals during August alone. "They demonstrated the festival's effectiveness in promoting the tourism industry and in increasing sales in the wider community," Ms Chow adds.
Direct benefits were also felt in the hotel sector. Average room occupancy touched 90 percent and average rates for an overnight stay have climbed 29 percent from a year ago. A mood of optimism prevails with the final quarter traditionally considered a peak season. After the difficulties of 2003, staffing levels are now back to normal and competition for experienced personnel is intensifying.
Rebound seen
The number of executive-level vacancies is also rebounding according to E.L Consult's September 2004 Executive Demand Index which tracks requirements across key groupings. It shows overall demand for executives climbed 5 percent in August and is 96 percent higher than this time last year.
"However, it still remains an employer's market," explains Alfred Chown, principal of E.L Consult. "There is currently no shortage of executives to meet the level of demand, although a shortfall could occur is some areas in the coming months." Recent statistics show vacancies have been generally higher in all areas apart from IT.
Even a dramatic rise in the number of government openings for IT managers could not offset an overall decline in that sector. Monthly demand fell a disappointing 7 percent in August and is down 26 percent compared with a year ago. Nevertheless, Edwin Tam, director of InfoTech, remains upbeat. "The current figures reflect the fact that some less critical IT projects were extended from 2002 into 2003 beyond the original target completion dates," he explains. "After that, with the sluggish economy, the major new projects were primarily public sector outsourcing initiatives like the IT Professional Service Agreement (ITPSA). There is no doubt the rebound in the economy will contribute to a more positive mood within the sector and a higher rate of employment."
Most IT professionals with popular skill sets can now find jobs within a couple of weeks rather than the several months it has previously been taking. Salaries, however, at least in the short term, are not likely to rise significantly.
Hiring up
Manufacturing industries, meanwhile, have been experiencing a "significant turnaround" in recent months, according to Victor Lai, managing consultant of Drake International. More senior managerial positions have been opening up as companies become increasingly confident about the recovery. "This, allied to expansion and a higher level of business activity throughout Asia, has led to hiring for both middle management and supporting roles," Mr Lai notes. "Most industries are picking up, but telecoms is probably not yet moving as fast as the others."
As investor sentiment has improved, so have the prospects for recruitment in the banking and financial services sector. A good proportion of institutions, which had scaled back their hiring in line with bear market conditions, are now changing policy and adding staff.
Kathy Chan, managing director of Advance Resources, has seen similar trends within the insurance sector. According to her, "Recruitment of senior executives in insurance has, on the whole, improved in recent months. There has, though, been a notable shift towards hiring mid-level staff, as companies are more reluctant to commit to the salary packages expected by big-name executives. The cost factor is what counts, with the strategy being to take on real revenue producers as opposed to senior business managers."
Data compiled by Career Times Research Team
Bullish again
Looking towards the fourth quarter, Erika Morton, general manager for Hudson Global Resources, believes that the vast majority of Hong Kong companies are bullish about continued economic recovery stretching well into 2005. "Having completed restructuring and come through the tough business environment of recent years, many companies are now planning to increase their headcount," she notes.
There will, however, still be a fair degree of variation between sectors. Deborah Morgan, regional area manager, Hong Kong and Philippines for Manpower, confirms this point of view. According to her company's Employment Outlook Survey, employers in the finance, insurance and real estate sectors anticipate the greatest level of hiring activity with estimated growth of 35 percent. Property and construction companies, on the other hand, reveal far more caution in predicting only a 3 percent gain in job vacancies in 2005.
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Data compiled by Career Times Research Team
Taken from Career Times 2004/10/08
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